Post forecasts stable pork production in 2026 and reduced pork imports due to abundant domestic supplies. Post anticipates lower beef production and slightly higher imports to meet demand in price-sensitive segments.

Cattle Imports: Post forecasts cattle imports in 2026 to remain low, in line with 2025 levels. Beef cattle imports are expected to stay minimal, while dairy cattle imports will be constrained by weak milk prices, high costs, and reliance on in-house breeding systems among large operations.

Beef Imports: Post forecasts beef imports in 2026 to increase slightly due to lower domestic production. Imports of frozen beef will help meet demand in lower-priced market segments. However, overall growth will be limited by economic pressure and continued weakness in foodservice and household demand.

Swine Imports: Post revised its 2025 swine import estimate downward due to trade uncertainty, and limited quarantine capacity. A moderate rebound is forecast for 2026, supported by ongoing demand for high-quality genetics and fulfillment of delayed contracts.

Pork Imports: Post forecasts pork imports in 2026 to decline modestly on weaker demand and ample domestic supply. Traders are cautious amid slower market movement and high cold storage inventories.

CATTLE

Cattle Imports in 2026 to Remain Low

Post forecasts that China's live cattle imports in 2026 will remain low, roughly in line with 2025 levels (see Chart 1), with the majority being dairy cattle. Imports will primarily support herd renewal and a limited number of project-based introductions. Imported dairy cattle are mainly used to replenish breeding herds in large-scale operations, bridge genetic gaps in newly built facilities, and serve as alternatives to frozen semen and embryo technologies—particularly considering the suspension of U.S. embryo export licenses in early 2025. Industry sources indicate Australia regained access for frozen semen and embryos in 2025.

Chart 1. China: Live Cattle Imports

Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC and Post Forecast

Milk prices remained weak throughout the first half of 2025 (see Chart 2), according to MARA data. Even if prices improve modestly in 2026, they are unlikely to reach levels that would justify large-scale herd expansion or significant capital investment in imported breeding stock. Producers remain cautious about introducing high-cost animals under uncertain market conditions. Some leading dairy enterprises have established stable in-house breeding programs and have become less dependent on imports. These companies increasingly rely on embryo transfer and domestic replacements to maintain genetic diversity within their herds rather than expanding herd size through foreign sources.

Chart 2. China: National Average Milk Price

Source: MARA

Beef cattle imports will continue to represent a minor share of total live cattle shipments. Beef cattle imports in 2026 are expected to remain minimal, as market prices remain low to support substantial import demand.

Cattle Imports in 2025 to Decline Sharply

Post revised its forecast for China's live cattle imports in 2025 to reflect a year-over-year decline, reversing earlier expectations of modest growth. The adjustment is based on significantly lower import volumes in the first five months of the year and continued industry caution toward expansion. From January to May 2025, China imported just 14,000 head of live cattle, down over 65 percent compared to the same period in 2024. Australia remained the sole supplier. The sharp drop in trade suggests that full-year imports will fall below 2024 levels, even if volumes increase slightly in the second half.

China's cattle sector remains cautious to new investments and expansions following herd reductions in 2024. Investment decisions are restrained, and live cattle imports—primarily dairy cattle—are concentrated in small-scale, project-specific purchases. New import activity in 2025 is largely focused on maintaining genetic diversity rather than expanding herd size.

BEEF

Beef Imports in 2026 May Rise Slightly

Post forecasts China's beef imports to be slightly higher in 2026 due to reduced domestic production, with frozen beef from Brazil and South America offsetting shortages in cost-sensitive segments like hotpot and catering (see Chart 3). However, sluggish demand and weaker household consumption will limit overall import growth, with imports filling structural gaps rather than driving market expansion.

Chart 3. China: Beef Imports

Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC and Post Forecast

Brazil will likely remain China’s top beef supplier, offering competitively priced products well-suited to mass-market applications. However, imports of premium products are unlikely to rebound. U.S. beef exports to China are unlikely to return to previous levels in 2026 due to unresolved establishment registration issues, as China has allowed several hundred U.S. beef establishment registrations to lapse (see Policy section) and imposed retaliatory tariffs, severely limiting high-value chilled and frozen U.S. beef shipments. High costs and limited downstream demand also constrain imports from other premium suppliers.

Safeguard Investigation on Beef Imports Continues

In December 2024, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) launched a safeguard investigation into beef imports following a petition from the China Animal Agriculture Association and nine provincial livestock associations. The investigation covers fresh, chilled, and frozen beef products under specific HS codes. On August 6, 2025, MOFCOM issued Public Notice No. 38 announcing that, due to the complexity of the case, the investigation has been extended until November 26, 2025. As the investigation remains ongoing with no final determination or safeguard measure announced, the forecasts presented in this report do not factor in any potential impact from the safeguard case.

2025 Imports Revised Down

Post revised its 2025 beef import estimate lower due to weaker-than-expected consumer demand. Economic pressure and reduced household spending curbed beef consumption across both retail and foodservice sectors. From January to May 2025, China's beef imports dropped more than ten percent year-over-year. Even with a potential pickup later in the year, full-year shipments are unlikely to reach 2024 levels. Trade restrictions on U.S. beef also weighed on overall import demand, though to a lesser extent.

SWINE

2026 Breeding Swine Imports to Rebound Moderately

Post forecasts a moderate year-on-year increase in breeding swine imports in 2026, following a lower base in 2025 (see Chart 4). Large-scale swine producers continue to prioritize genetic improvement as part of efforts to raise pigs per sow per year (PSY), driving persistent demand for high-quality breeding stock. As China’s domestic core breeding system remains under development, imports will continue to play a critical role in herd genetic renewal.

Chart 4. China: Live Swine Imports

Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC and Post Forecast

Additionally, some orders originally contracted in 2025 are delayed due to quarantine bottlenecks or trade-related uncertainties and could be fulfilled in 2026. Industry sources have indicated that U.S. breeding swine remain competitive with limited tariffs but are concerned about an inconsistent trading environment that could lead to delayed or canceled shipments. Meanwhile, non-U.S. suppliers such as Denmark have already increased shipments in 2025, and their role in China's breeding swine supply is likely to expand further in 2026.

However, the growth in imports will remain constrained by persistent logistical limitations. Unless new quarantine facilities are operational by 2026, the capacity shortage will continue to limit the volume of imported breeding swine. There are reports of a new quarantine facility opening in Shandong Province in the near future.

2025 Breeding Swine Import Estimate Revised Down

Post revised down its 2025 estimate for live swine imports due to increased uncertainty in the international trade environment and weakening import demand. Sources indicate that since the beginning of 2025, several previously signed contracts were canceled or delayed as importers feared potential disruptions. U.S. exporters also reported that some buyers hesitated to confirm shipments or delayed arranging chartered flights. Additionally, in the current economic climate, some small- and mid-sized producers opted to delay or suspend imports to avoid the risks associated with rising costs and unclear regulatory conditions.

Post also notes that logistical bottlenecks further constrained breeding swine imports. Limited quarantine space meant that some contracted shipments could not enter China on schedule. Even where demand remained, lack of available quarantine slots created delays that discouraged follow-on orders. Additionally, high transportation costs3 added to the burden. Importers must also navigate complex coordination of transport, customs, and animal health protocols, where any disruption can lead to shipment failure. These logistical and cost-related challenges compounded the overall decline in breeding swine imports in early 2025.

PORK

Pork Imports in 2026 to Decline

Post forecasts that weakening demand and sufficient domestic supplies will drive China's pork imports lower in 2026, following a moderate increase in 2025 and reflecting shifting market conditions and stable consumption (see Chart 5). China's steady pork production in 2026, with no anticipated significant shortfalls, will ensure a reliable domestic supply, reducing the need for buyers to rely on imported product compared to previous years marked by supply gaps and herd fluctuations. Imports will continue to serve segments such as frozen processing and foodservice.

Chart 5. China: Pork Imports

Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC and Post Forecasts

Importers report remaining cautious about sourcing U.S. pork due to ongoing regulatory and political uncertainties. Some buyers have reduced shipments from the United States or shifted to alternative suppliers to avoid potential disruptions related to customs clearance, licensing, or renewed policy action.

Pork Variety Meat Imports in 2026 to Remain Elevated

Post expects China's pork variety meat imports to remain elevated in 2026. Official trade data show consistently high import volumes under HS code 020649 (frozen edible swine offal, excluding livers), which remains the dominant category in China’s pork variety meat trade. From 2020 to 2024, annual imports under this code exceeded 1 MMT each year. In the first five months of 2025, imports were slightly above the same period in 2024, indicating sustained trade momentum.

Pork variety meats such as pork knuckle, sliced pig ears, and pork tongue are widely used in traditional Chinese cuisine, featured in braised dishes, hot pot, and ready-to-eat meals. These products enjoy broad acceptance in lower-tier cities and regional foodservice markets, where cost sensitivity is high, but substitution remains limited.

Domestic supply constraints further reinforce demand for imported products. While domestic consumption of variety meats remains strong, structural limitations in China’s slaughtering and processing systems continue to affect the availability and standardization of locally produced offal. Imported products offer both cost competitiveness and consistent supply.

Major suppliers, including the United States, the EU, and Canada, have maintained long-term export relationships with China. The United States remains China’s largest single supplier. However, the Chinese Government continues to impose elevated tariffs on U.S. pork and variety meats, with rates significantly higher than those applied to other origins. In the first five months of 2025, U.S. exports of pork variety meats to China declined year-over-year. Post expects these high tariffs to continue weighing on U.S. exports to China in 2026.

Please click the link below to access the report.

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Livestock%20and%20Products%20Annual_Beijing_China%20-%20People%27s%20Republic%20of_CH2025-0165.pdf

Source: USDA

Note: This article is compiled by Antion. Please indicate the source for reprint.