Post maintains its 2025 forecast on the decline of both pork and beef production. Due to the decline in domestic beef production and growing market demand, Post forecasts beef imports to grow in 2025. Post revised downward its 2025 pork import forecast to levels similar to 2024 owing to depressed demand. Post acknowledges but does not include in its forecast the potential impacts of recent retaliatory tariffs announced on March 4, 2025, by the Chinese Government, which come into effect on March 10, 2025, as well as the impending registration expirations of hundreds of U.S. meat establishments as they are not in effect at the time of this publication. Market access for U.S. beef and pork remains constrained as the Chinese government is not implementing relevant annexes for meat trade specified in the Economic and Trade Agreement.
Cattle Imports: Post forecasts cattle imports to further decline in 2025 due to adaptability issues for non-native cattle breeds, an abundance of domestic cattle, and declining milk prices.
Beef Imports: Post forecasts beef imports in 2025 to grow marginally due to domestic production constraints and increased demand for imported cuts. Growth will be moderated by economic headwinds and strong volumes of imported beef in previous years.
Swine Imports: Post forecasts swine imports in 2025 to be stable from 2024. The consensus is that China’s swine herd has recovered following its decimation by African swine fever (ASF) and that vertically integrated pork industry members have improved herd management. Additionally, sow numbers are being met mostly by domestic breeds and complemented by modest imports.
Pork Imports: Post forecasts pork imports in 2025 to remain flat because of weak consumer demand in the sluggish economy. In addition, industry sources report imported pork has not been moving as quickly through the market as before and traders appear to have adequate inventories.
CATTLE
Cattle Imports to Remain Low
Post forecasts that imports of live cattle for beef use in 2025 will remain at similar low levels as 2024 due to low domestic cattle prices. Some marginal growth could come from live cattle imports for dairy use as raw milk prices could bottom out in 2025 (see Chart 1).
Chart 1. China: Live Cattle Imports
Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC and Post Forecast
In 2024, many imported cattle investors suffered significant losses. Breeding heifers, purchased at high prices, saw a sharp decline in value in the Chinese market. Even at these lower prices, finding buyers has been difficult. Although the rate of decline in beef prices slowed in late 2024, prices have not yet bottomed out. Additionally, industry sources indicate that farm management challenges and difficulties adapting to local farming conditions impacted the production efficiency of some imported beef cattle breeds, such as Angus.
While the cattle inventory of large farms continues to grow, their overall share remains small. According to industry sources, the total beef cattle inventory of the top 50 beef cattle breeding groups reached 1.3 million head by the end of 2023. However, this still accounted for less than 2 percent of China's total cattle inventory. Large farms are also facing pressure from low beef cattle prices. The increased demand for imported beef cattle from some large farms will not offset the decline in demand from the majority of smaller cattle farms.
Post forecasts that dairy cattle imports will have some marginal growth. Raw milk prices continued to decline throughout most of 2024. Prices appeared to stabilize at the end of 2024 (see Chart 2) following a decline in raw milk production. If milk prices increase in 2025, improving farmer incomes, there could be marginal growth in demand for dairy cattle imports. However, as dairy farms continue to operate at a loss, it will take time for them to return to profitability before they can import dairy cattle to expand their production.
Chart 2. China: National Average Milk Price
BEEF
Beef Imports to Grow Slower in 2025
Post's forecast on 2025 beef imports remains unchanged from the last report. This forecast includes a slower year-over-year growth rate compared to 2024 (see Chart 3). Due to declining domestic beef production and growing market demand, beef imports will grow in 2025. Demand for imported beef remains strong across both low- and high-end markets. Post forecasts that beef consumption will grow at a slower pace. This deceleration in consumption growth is expected to limit the rate of increase in beef imports.
Chart 3. China: Beef Imports
Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC and Post Forecasts
SWINE
Live Swine Imports to Remain Stable
Post maintains its forecast on stable swine imports in 2025 (see Chart 4). Post forecasts some marginal herd expansion from large-scale producers in 2025 (see Swine Production). However, the demand for imported breeding swine will be stable as producers can expend their herds with domestic breeds. China only imports a small number of breeding swine to improve herd genetics. Due to improved management efficiency and technology in breeding farms, farms are less dependent on imported breeding swine.
Chart 4. China: Live Swine Imports
Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC and Post Forecast
Selection of breeding swine is based on different needs from different swine breeders. Breeds from different supplying countries can meet different needs. For example, U.S. breeding swine, due to their large skeletons, are popular in some farms as some consumption areas prefer large spareribs. Danish breeding swine are popular among some companies for their perceived characteristics, including fast daily growth, low feed-to-meat ratio, and high PSY. The United States was China's top breeding swine supplier in 2024. Post expects U.S. live swine to remain popular in the Chinese market in 2025.
PORK
Pork Imports to Remain Stable
Post revised downward its pork import forecast for 2025 (see Chart 5) mainly due to flat domestic consumption and ample production. The revised forecast is at similar levels to 2024 imports. Sources indicate the quality of domestic pork has been improving, making domestic pork a strong competitor to imported pork. Most consumers prefer domestically produced fresh/chilled pork over imported frozen pork. Pork imports declined dramatically due to weak market demand in 2024. The business of import agents shrank considerably. Many importer contacts indicated the business loss in 2024 offset their profits earned in previous years.
Chart 5. China: Pork Imports
Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC and Post Forecast
China mainly imports pork from Spain, Brazil, Denmark, the Netherlands, Canada, and the United States. Post doesn't expect special opportunities in supplying countries as quality differences between various origins of imported pork are not as noticeable as high-end proteins such as beef. According to trade contacts, there will continue to be demand for pork from the United States as the U.S. pork supply is stable and prices do not fluctuate greatly. U.S. pork is mainly used in processing plants. There are also some U.S. pork cuts that are popular in HRI such as sparerib, CT butt, and belly meat. Chinese consumers are becoming increasingly price-sensitive, while U.S. pork prices are not as competitive as other main supplying countries.
The Chinese government started an anti-dumping investigation into imports of relevant pork and pig by-products originating from the European Union in 2024. Chinese importers expressed concerns and some importers plan to diversify their sourcing.
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Source: USDA
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